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Carlesta Elliott Spearman is professor emerita of music at Keene State College, University System of New Hampshire.

Introduction

Today, two of the most influential phenomena of life in the United States and the world are the societal and technological forces at work in our human existence. Even more important to this reality is how much one is affected by the other. Indeed, innovations in technology provide a useful backdrop for viewing the milestones of social changes, while at the same time, developments in sociological actions and thoughts are propelling technology forward. It is important, therefore, that MENC—The National Association for Music Education, in keeping with its mission to provide musical knowledge, skills, and understanding to people of all ages, take a very hard look at developments in those two phenomena as we approach the next millennium and beyond. This overview is necessary in order for MENC to prepare for the new century and make wise decisions regarding the appropriate path toward achieving its mission most effectively. This is no small task, but it is one that would not be possible at all without such proactive steps.

Societal forces are many-faceted and far-reaching. Culture, environment, geography, economics, politics, medicine and health, religion, and education are all major societal forces that interact in very complex ways. In the past, we in the United States focused our attention on these important events as they concerned only our nation's social institutions. However, as the farthest reaches of the earth have become more accessible through technological advances in mass communication and transportation technology, a study of the larger world and our society's place in it is required.

Moreover the dominant position of our country in the larger world system demands that focus. John Macionis, a noted social scientist states,

Human lives do not unfold according to sheer chance, nor do people live in isolation relying on what philosophers call "free will" in all our choices and actions. On the contrary, while individuals make important decisions everyday, we do so within a larger arena called "society"—a family, a campus, a nation, an entire world. The essential wisdom of sociology is that the surrounding society guides our actions just as surely as the seasons influence how we dress and the kinds of activities we engage in. And, because sociologists know a great deal about how society works, they can predict with a good measure of accuracy how we all behave.1

Sociology, then, is the scientific study of human social activity. Music teaching is both an art and a social activity. A classroom is a social structure. Therefore, an effective teacher of music must combine knowledge of each student's sociological context with knowledge of music in order to develop successful teaching strategies within that social structure. Indeed, for teachers, the practice of "thinking sociologically" opens the way for appropriate academic and social interaction in any and every classroom circumstance. This treatise takes a diagnostic and prescriptive exploration into the future in an effort to provide a background regarding the cultural factors and sociological changes that will affect the teaching of music beyond the year 2000.

Societal Changes That Will Affect the Teaching of Music

Recently, many within the United States have attempted to face the challenges of multiculturalism and promote an educational program that recognizes the cultural diversity by advancing the equality of all cultural traditions. Yet what does multiculturalism really mean?

Social scientists (contrary to many others within our society) use the term "culture" to refer to all elements of a society's way of life, realizing that cultural patterns vary throughout a population. It would seem that this understanding is critical to the teaching profession. Our nation contains striking cultural diversity. Heavy immigration over the centuries has turned the United States into the most multicultural of all industrial countries. Between 1820 (when our government began keeping track of immigration) and 1990, more than fifty-five million people came to our shores from other nations. A century ago, most immigrants arrived from Europe; today, a majority of newcomers arrive from Latin America and Asia.      

The Census Bureau's most recent population profile indicates that children born in the 1990s may well live to see people of Asian, Hispanic, and African ancestry as a majority of this country's population. The United States is truly becoming a microcosm of the world's people. With that reality in mind, proponents see multiculturalism as needed preparation for living in a world in which nations are increasingly interdependent. Our national economy is certainly reflecting this condition. Teaching global connectedness will probably be easier through education that includes music of the world's people. The National Standards for Arts Education address this reality emphatically in the following statement:

The cultural diversity of America is a vast resource for arts education and should be used to help students understand themselves and others. The visual, traditional, and performing arts provide a variety of lenses for examining the cultures and artistic contributions of our nation and others around the world. Students should learn that each art form has its own characteristics and makes its distinctive contributions, that each has its own history and heroes.... Subject matter from diverse historical periods, styles, forms, and cultures should be used to develop basic knowledge and skills in the various art disciplines.2

The 1997 Population Profile of the United States, published by the U.S. Department of Economics and Statistics Administration, contains data that have significant implications for education in general, and for music education in particular. According to that report, the U.S. population is projected to increase to 394 million by 2050; this is about 50% larger than today's population. This growth will be concentrated among the school-age population, people in their thirties and forties, and the elderly. It is predicted that the average age of the population will be older than it is now. During 1996, growth rates were highest for the Hispanic (of any race) and for the Asian and Pacific Islander populations. The African-American population is projected to reach 40 million by 2010, and 61 million by 2050.

In October 1995, 69.6 million people were enrolled in school. Among 3- and 4-year-olds, 44.9% were enrolled in nursery school. The number of elementary and high school students was lower in 1995 than in the peak years of the early 1970s but higher than in the mid 1980s. At the college level, there were 14.7 million students in 1995, 41% of whom were aged 25 and over. About 5.4% of all students in the tenth, eleventh, and twelfth grades dropped out of school in the one-year period from October 1994 to October 1995. Among people aged 25 and over in 1996, 81.7% had completed high school and 23.6% had completed four or more years of college. High school completion for people aged 25 and over stood at 82.8% for Whites, 74.3% for Blacks, and 53.1% for Hispanics. Racial differences in educational attainment continued to narrow noticeably between Blacks and Whites. Since 1980, African Americans have made remarkable educational progress, with the proportion of Black adults completing high school rising from half to almost three-fourths, nearly closing the historical gap between the two. Between 1980 and 1995, moreover, the share of African American adults with at least a college degree rose from 8% to 13%. But, at the college level, there remains striking racial disparity. African Americans have attained little better than half the national standard when it comes to completing four years of college. These data will have an impact on the faculty make-up of the next century, which will be discussed later in this paper.

Among the states, California had both the largest number and percentage of foreign born; i.e., eight million people or one-fourth of California's total population. Most of the rapid population growth states were located in the West and South. Some states, such as California and New York, were gaining many new residents from international migration while losing even larger numbers through net out-migration to other states. By 2025, nearly one billion people are projected to move interstate. The most populous states in the South will continue to grow fairly rapidly. During 1994, Texas replaced New York as the third most populous state, and it is expected to remain in that position throughout the projected period. Florida is projected to become much larger by 2020. Demographic changes typically transform some parts of the country more than others.

Between 1995 and 2025, California, Texas, and Florida expect the greatest state population gains, more than six million people to each state. Each year from now to 2050, the race/ethnic group adding the largest number of people to the population will be the Hispanic-origin population. After 2020, the Hispanic population is projected to add more people to the U.S. every year than will all other race/ethnic groups combined. By 2010, the Hispanic origin population may become the second largest race/ethnic group. Thus, the already-apparent problem of high Hispanic school-aged dropouts may be the most critical issue in the educational system in the next millennium. Also by 2025, young people are expected to make up less than 25% of the population of most metropolitan areas. In more than one-third of the states, the elderly are projected to double their share of those states' total population, with metropolitan areas showing the greatest rate of growth.

Considering these changing demographics, other issues need clarification. Our nation is officially committed to the credo that all men are created equal, yet race and ethnicity will continue to permeate the lives of men, women, and children in many ways. We might develop a better understanding of these two categories by considering how social scientists define them. Ethnicityis a shared cultural heritage. Common ancestors, language, and religion confer a distinctive social identity. Race is a category composed of men and women who share biologically transmitted traits. While some people classify each other socially based upon physical characteristics such as skin color, hair texture, facial features, and body shape, racial features have nothing to do with being human. As human beings we are all members of a single biological species. Over the course of history, human migration spread genetic characteristics throughout much of the world. No society lacks genetic mixture, and increasing contact among the world's people ensures that racial blending will accelerate in the future.3

Interracial births have doubled since 1980. Moreover, when completing the 1990 census forms, almost ten million people omitted checking a racial category. The Census Bureau is likely to respond to the growing racial complexity of our society by adding a new "multicultural" option in the near future.4 The term "minority" has usually connoted a category of people who are socially disadvantaged, who have a disability, and/or who are underrepresented in the economic and professional arenas. With the demographic numbers forecast herein, that connotation will have to change as well. In the next millennium, because of the blurring of lines of racial and ethnic identities, we in music education will have to adhere to a more egalitarian posture that urges us to refrain from being judgmental or guilty of racist behaviors and unfounded assumptions.

Although there are several controversial issues that cause divided opinions among educators regarding cultural diversity (i.e., ethnocentrism vs. eurocentrism; divisiveness vs. unity; separatism vs. universalism), our demographic forecast for the next millennium mandates that our nation's schools, teachers, and administrators find a workable solution to these problems. Indeed, our students are not the problem, and they deserve that we "work it out." We must provide solutions that give them a chance for a better life in which music literacy matters and is an integral part of who they are. It is central to our vision that we remember that culture is ever changing, and while these changes sometimes function as a constraint, they also serve as a continual source of human opportunity, enrichment, and growth.

 
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